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Hypothesis and Verification of Kuznets Curve between Urbanization Evolution and Carbon Emissions in Anhui Province

ZHANG Le-qin;HE Xiao-qing;Department of Resource Environment and Tourism,Chizhou College;  
To explore the dynamic evolution laws of the impacts of urbanization on carbon emissions has a reference value to formulate carbon emission reduction policies under the background of urbanization evolution.A total of 16 indicators,including urban population proportion,were selected to construct a comprehensive evaluation system of urbanization.The entropy method was used to estimate the urbanization composite index.Through STIRPAT model and introducing the quadratic term of urbanization composite index,a simple model of Kuznets curve between urbanization and carbon emissions was established.The partial least squares regression analysis method was adopted to investigate the evolutionary relationships between urbanization and carbon emissions.The results showed that:1 The urbanization composite index of Anhui Province rose from0.047 5in 1996 to 0.994 0in 2012;2 the elasticity coefficients of population,technology and industrial structure on changes in carbon emissions were 0.015 817,-0.130 286 and 0.033 898respectively;3 the linear and quadratic coefficients of economic development level were both positive,and no environmental Kuznets inverted U-shaped relationship was identified between economic development and carbon emissions;4 the linear and quadratic coefficients of urbanization composite index was 0.344 428and-0.907 312 respectively,and the relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions fitted the inverted U-shaped curve.When urbanization composite index was 1.209016,urbanization made the most impacts on carbon emissions.With further enhancing the comprehensive level of urbanization,its impact on carbon emissions would be mitigated.Therefore,the carbon reduction targets of Anhui Province can be achieved by optimizing industrial structure,promoting technological progress,controlling population growth,improving the comprehensive level of urbanization and other initiatives.
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