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《Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology》 2016-06
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Estimation of Dynamic OD Flow Based on Polynomial Trend Model

JIANG Zhu;LEI Zhen-yu;LI Shu-bin;School of Energy and Power Engineering,Xihua University;Institute of Rail Transit,Tongji University;Public Security Department,Shandong Policy College;  
To more accurately describe the evolution process of dynamic traffic flow, and get an unbiased estimation of state vectors, a novel polynomial trend filtering method is proposed for real dynamic OD matrix estimation on the basis of the polynomial trend model and the Kalman filtering theory in the paper.Firstly, the state variables are defined as the deviations of the actual OD flow from the historical values.These deviations are presented as a stochastic evolution process with a sliding trend. Furthermore, the dynamic OD matrix is estimated and predicated by establishing a polynomial trend filtering model. Finally, a simulation freeway is used as the research object, and a large number of simulation results prove that the performance of the algorithm proposed in this paper is better than the traditional method, and this algorithm can acquire more accurate estimation and prediction information for OD matrix.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(71471104);; 流体及动力机械教育部重点实验室开放基金(szjj2014-038 szjj2015-026)~~
【CateGory Index】: U491
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