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《Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology》 2016-06
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Urban Road Traffic Conflict and Accident Prediction during the Period of Ice and Snow in Cold Region

WU Li-xin;CHENG Guo-zhu;QIN Li-hui;ZHAI Lu-lu;School of Transportation Science and Engineering,Jilin Jianzhu University;School of Transportation Science and Engineering,Harbin Institute of Technology;School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University;  
In order to predict reasonably the number of urban road traffic accident and then present effective traffic safety guarantee measures, time headway is adopted as judging index of the conflict, and the number of conflicts is adopted as prediction index of traffic accidents. Based on the survey of driving speed and pavement friction coefficient during the period of ice and snow in cold region, thresholds of conflict time corresponding to different speed are calculated. Regression method is adopted, and a model is developed for capturing the interrelation between traffic volume and the number of conflict. According to the relationship between traffic conflict and traffic accident, the relation model is established between traffic volume and the number of accident. Then, predicted values of the number of traffic conflict and accident corresponding to different traffic volume are offered during the period of ice and snow in cold region. It shows that the relation between the number of traffic conflict and traffic volume conforms to Logistic model, and the number of traffic conflict and accident increase with the rising of traffic volume, and the growth trend is from slow to quick and then to slow.
【Fund】: 吉林省教育厅“十三五”科学技术研究项目(2016155)~~
【CateGory Index】: U491
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