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GREY PREDICTION OF MODERATE AND STRONGEARTHQUMES IN JAPAN

Wang Xiuwen;Thao Lihua ;Tian Yong and Chen Daye(Seismological Bureau of Shanxi Province,Taiguan 030002)  
in this paper, the dynamic modcl of prodicting the origin time of carthquakes is established byusing the srey control system and choosing 6. 0Ms7. 0 seismic sequences from Jan. 1980 to Dec. 1988 inJapan as samples,and the best model is chosen to predict the occurrence of the moderate and strong carthquakcs inJapan. Morcovcr, in view of function transformation ,the model GM(1.1)is intrpreted in a broad sense and themodel cstablished for the scquencc mtist take time when the smooth degree is satisfied as the starting point.Morecalculatons indicate theat the fitting and extrapolated precisions of model cstablished“enough small number”ofsamplcs are better than that by “laorge number”of samplcs. This is anaysed from the view of information theory.
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