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《中国地理科学(英文版)》 2008-01
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Empirical Analysis of Xinjiang's Bilateral Trade: Gravity Model Approach

CHEN Xuegang1, 2, YANG Zhaoping1, LIU Xuling1 (1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; 2. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)  
Based on the basic trade gravity model and Xinjiang's practical situation, new explanatory variables (GDP, GDPpc and SCO) are introduced to build an extended trade gravity model fitting for Xinjiang's bilateral trade. From the empirical analysis of this model, it is proposed that those three variables affect the Xinjiang's bilateral trade posi- tively. Whereas, geographic distance is found to be a significant factor influencing Xinjiang’s bilateral trade negatively. Then, by the extended trade gravity model, this article analyzes the present trade situation between Xinjiang and its main trade partners quantitatively in 2004. The results indicate that Xinjiang cooperates with its most trade partners successfully in terms of present economic scale and developing level. Xinjiang has established successfully trade part- nership with Central Asia, Central Europe and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, East Asia and South Asia. However, the foreign trade development with West Asia is much slower. Finally, some suggestions on developing Xinjiang's for- eign trade are put forward.
【Fund】: Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCS-SW-355)
【CateGory Index】: F752.8;F224
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