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《Journal of Zhejiang University(Engineering Science)》 2009-01
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Uncertainty analysis for decision-making in river basin management

CAO Fei-feng1,XU Yue-ping1,XUAN Ying-ji2,LOU Zhang-hua1 (1.Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310028,China;2.School of Water Resources and Hydropower,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)  
Uncertainty in river basin management have impacts on the ranking of river structural or non-structural measures.Latin hypercube sampling of Monte Carlo method was used to propagate different uncertainty sources into decision-making with focus on mathematical model uncertainty.Five potential measures were used and the impacts of various uncertainty sources on the ranking of the measures for the Meuse River in the Netherlands were investigated according to the mean value and standard deviation of net present value under different measures.Results show that the impacts are significant and decision makers will experience difficulty in ranking under uncertainty.Uncertainty analysis for decision-making in river basin management can provide more reliable scientific support.
【Fund】: 荷兰皇家科学院科技资助项目(02CDP036)
【CateGory Index】: TV213.4
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