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《Journal of Zhejiang University(Engineering Science)》 2009-01
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Application of characteristic polynomial roots of autoregression time-series model in analysis of dam observation data

LI Fu-qiang,QIAN Jing-lin(Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)  
The AR(p) model was applied to analyze the residual data produced by the regression analysis method based on the time series analysis method in order to define the dam safety monitoring index according to the analysis of dam observational data.The Levinson derivation method was used to estimate the AR(p) model parameters.The dam safety behavior trend was appraised according to the distance from the characteristic polynomial roots of AR(p) model to unit circle.An application example of practical deformation data on an arch dam was introduced.The effects of the dehiscence in arch dam and dam body grouting on the dam structure behavior accorded with the calculation results.The method can be effectively used in the safety evaluation of dam structure.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50509021)
【CateGory Index】: TV698.1
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