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《Chinese Medical Record》 2012-12
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Application of Grey Model(1,1) on Predicting Outpatients Quantity

Ma chunliu,Liu Haixia,Li Xiaosheng,Lei Haike,Zhou Hong,Chongqing Tumor Research Institute,Chongqing 400030,China  
Objective To investigate the outpatients quantity trend from 2000 to 2011,discuss the application of Grey Model(1,1)in the time series data,and build prediction model based on mensual quantity of outpatient and provide scientific,statistical according for optimization of medical treatment resource collection.Methods Based on the outpatients quantity from 2000 to 2011,we made the grey system GM(1,1)forecast model and gave the model evaluation,then give the forecast from 2012 to 2014.Results The Grey Model(1,1) is:(t)=552512.3619e0.1021(t-1)-478343.3619.The relative error values of predictive value are all less than 0.20 and model is testified to be satisfied(C=0.29,P=1.00).The predictive value from 2012 to 2014 are 182612、202243 and 223984.Conclusion The Grey Model(1,1) had a good matching.The hospital outpatient quantity will continue to rise in the absence of external factors.
【CateGory Index】: N941.5;O242.1;R197.3
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