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《Forum on Science and Technology in China》 2018-04
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Evaluation of Global Supply Risk of Critical Minerals for New Energy Vehicles

Wang Chang;Sun Jing;Zuo Lyushui;Song Huiling;School of Business,Central South University;Institute of Metal Resources Strategy,Central South University;Sustainable Minerals Institute,The University of Queensland;  
In recent years,new energy vehicle industry is experiencing phenomenal growth,which generates strong demand for critical minerals. Meanwhile,the supply risk of critical minerals is getting more and more serious. In this paper,we defined 23 critical minerals for new energy vehicles,including cobalt,nickel,lithium,rare earth elements. Then,a quantitative evaluation model which is comprised of three dimensions: geological,technological and economic dimension,social and regulatory dimension,and geopolitical dimension,was established to evaluate global supply risk of those critical minerals. This study further analyzed how risk would change un-der the consideration of resources recycling. The results indicate that,tin has the highest supply risk,followed by chromium,germanium and cobalt,while lithium enjoys the lowest supply risk. And their supply risk declines to some different content under the scenario of recycling. Particularly,if the minerals are recycled infinitely,the risk of Cr and Sn would fall into middle from middle-high,Co,Fe,Zn,Mn,Ag,Au,Ni,Al would fall into low-middle from middle,and Cu would fall into low from middle. On the basis of the results,we proposes to build classification management system of critical minerals and develop urban minerals to satisfy the resources demand of new energy vehicle industry.
【Fund】: 国家社科基金重大项目“基于国家金属资源安全视角下的城市矿产开发利用研究”(14ZDB136);国家社科基金一般项目“我国工业化中后期稀有金属资源安全态势与供给保障机制研究”(13BGL105);; 国家自科基金重点项目“经济新常态下国家金属资源安全管理及其政策研究”(71633006);; 湖南省教育厅创新平台开放基金项目“新能源汽车关键性金属安全评估及保障对策研究”(16K101)
【CateGory Index】: F416
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