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《China Population Resources and Environment》 2007-01
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The Evaluation of Environmental Impact of Fertilizer in Wetland Rice Region of the Dongting Lake Area

XIANG Ping-an1 ZHOU Yan2 HUANG Huang1(1.College of Agronomy,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha Hunan 410128,China;2.Technical Center of Changsha Cigarette Factory,Changsha Hunan 410014, China)  
Using a time series analysis method,the author forecasts the population of the Dongting Lake area in 2010 will be 1 396.38×104 with the paddy demand 5 002.17×103 t,and a fertilizer demand at 1 466.91×103 t.In 2020 the population projection will be 1 492.31×104,the paddy demand 5 284.79×103 t,while the fertilizer demand quantity will be 1 549.79×103 t.The author set up an evaluation model of environmental costs of fertilizer on the basis of summarizing domestic and international fertilizers used and the relative environment impacts and forecasts the environmental costs of fertilizer in rice production in the Dongting Lake area.The environmental cost of fertilizer will be 2.2×108 yuan and 2.32×108 yuan in 2010 and 2020,respectively,which is equal to 3.4% and 3.13% of the paddy sale.The environmental costs are so high that the paddy field ecological system and society will be significant burdened. For the sake of sustainable development in rice production,the author advised the government to assess the environmental tax on fertilizer in such areas whereby chemical fertilizers are excessively used.
【Fund】: 国家863项目(编号:863-306-ZD05-3-E);; 国家星火计划项目(编号:2004EA770030)资助
【CateGory Index】: X820.3
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