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《China Population,Resources and Environment》 2011-01
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Study on the Impact of Increasing Russia Export Tariff on China's Timber Market

WANG Lan-hui1 LIU Jun-chang1 Steven Northway2 Gary Bull2(1.School of Economics & Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;2.University of British Columbia,Vancouver,BC V6T 1Z4,Canada)  
Russia is the largest exporter of log to China.The Russian government recently announced an increase in its export tariff on log from the present 6.5% of export product value to 80% in January 2010.The impact from increasing Russia export tariff to China is simulated by the China Timber Market Model established in this paper.The conclusions are: the Northeast region of China will be affected most and the harvest pressure will be enhanced by the large-scale tariff increase.The harvest in the middle region will increase about 2% while the south and west regions will be hardly impacted.In a whole,the total harvest of timber in China will increase 3.23%.From the impact of inter-region trade,the timber from the middle region will flow into the northeast to compensate the impact from decrease of timber.Some policy suggestions are given accordingly: diversify the import channel so as to guarantee the timber security;governments should provide convenience and guidance for China's forestry processing enterprises so as to clarify the industrid structure;due to the decrease of the exported amount of Russia log,most of plankings will be processed locally,which will promote the timber product structure adjustment and upgrading,then changing the leading role of lumber in product structure.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(编号:70771004 70371007 70531010);; 北京林业大学人文社科振兴专项基金(编号:BLRW200921);北京林业大学科技创新项目(编号:RW2010-4)
【CateGory Index】: F755.12;F326.2
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