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《Chinese Journal of Rice Science》 1987-02
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Time Series Analysis on Long Term Prediction of Tryporyza incertulas Population Dynamics

Chen Zheng (Jiangxi Computer Center)Yie Zhengxiang Wang Dudong (Jiangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences)Tu Numin (Jiangxi University)  
This paper dealt with the time series analysis for the long term prediction of population dynamics of Tryporyza incertulas(Walker).By the methods of stepwise regressive periodic analysis and stationary stochastes sequence,the following model is used: Y(t)~P(t)+S(t) Here,Y(t)is predicted value of population dynamics,P(t)is periodic term and S(t)is random term.The.better results have been obtained in forecasting practices.
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