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《Chinese Journal of Public Health Engineering》 2017-01
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Time series analysis of pesticide poisoning report in Weifang city from 2006 to 2014

YUAN Yi-chang;YANG qun;Department of Occupational Health,Weifang Center for Disease Control and Prevention;  
Objective To analyze the change trend of Weifang pesticide poisoning report,explore the ARIMA model in the application of pesticide poisoning report for fitting. Methods The data of Weifang pesticide poisoning were used from 2006 to 2014 in the report,SPSS19. 0 expert modeler was adopted to establish the optimal prediction model,and to predict numbers of reports of Weifang pesticide poisoning in 2015. Results During 2006-2014,Weifang unproductive pesticide poisoning reports had a slightly downward trend since 2011,the established ARIMA model,simple season better fitting of the usual time series on the number of productive and unproductive pesticide poisoning reports,the productive model of R2,normal BIC were 0. 413,3. 594,Unproductive model R2,normal BIC were 0. 727,5. 604. Conclusion This model can well describe the number of pesticide poisoning reports distribution in Weifang from 2006 to 2014,prediction effect is good.
【CateGory Index】: R595.4
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