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Analysis of prognostic factors and risk assessment of AIDS patients

WANG Gang,ZHANG Xiao-ya,JI Jia-chao,ZHANG Zhuo-yan,LIU Gui-fen Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan,Shanxi 030001,China  
Objective To analyze the prognostic factors related to the survival of AIDS patients in order to improve the quality of patients′life.Methods Data of sixty-four AIDS patients were collected from the fourth People′s Hospital who were treated from August 2004 to December 2011 and from provincial Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who were followed up regularly.Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test were used to estimate and compare the survival rate,and Cox proportional hazards regression was used for multivariate analysis.The expected survival rate of patients was assessed based on the value,which was used for grouping.Results The overall median survival time of AIDS patients was 18.00 months(95 % CI: 12.39-23.61).Cox regression analysis showed that education level was the main factor affecting the survival of AIDS patients,and pulmonary fungal infection,Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia(PCP) and HIV-related encephalopathy were all risk factors related to the survival of AIDS patients.Grouped according to the PI value,the survival rates were different among patients in each group(P 0.01).The expected survival rate of each individual patient could be estimated based on PI=-0.64.Conclusions Degree of education,pulmonary fungal infection,Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia(PCP) and HIV-related encephalopathy are independent prognostic factors for AIDS patients,and PI value can effectively predict the survival of AIDS patients and serve the basis for evaluation of individual clinical treatment.
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