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Estimated risks on developing chronic kidney disease within 5 years for adults aged 35-74 based on Taiwan MJ health-checkup Database

SUN Feng,YU Kai,TAO Qing-mei,TAO Qiu-shan,YANG Xing-hua,CAO Chun-keng,ZHAN Si-yan Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health, Peking University,Beijing 100191,China  
Objective The purpose of this study was to provide the epidemiological model evaluating the risks of developing chronic kidney disease(CKD)within 5 years among adults in Taiwan.Methods After excluding 1 712 individuals with CKD at baseline,a cohort of 18 275 subjects aged 35-74 years without CKD in the checkup point were enrolled during the year of 1996 to 2006.They were divided into a modeling cohort(for risk factors)and a verifying cohort(for evaluation).Logistic regression models was used for the estimation of risk factors,and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC)was applied for the evaluation of model predictability as well as the verification of its diagnostic property for the verifying cohort.A total of 4 different risk levels were classified based on cut points of these probabilities after transforming into normal distribution by log-transformation.Results After excluding 1 712 CKD individuals at baseline,the incidence of CKD was found to be 5.24%(958/18 275)in 5 years.Age,education,diabetes,hypertension,triglyceride,low density lipoprotein cholesterol and serum creatinine were 7 variables included in Logistic regression model for the estimation of risk factors.The results showed that the AUC was 0.734(95%CI: 0.714-0.754)for modeling cohort and 0.768(95%CI:0.734-0.801)for verifying cohort.Also individuals who were in the intermediate(14.1%)and high(5.4)risk levels were 2 times and 4.8 times more likely to develop CKD in 5 years.Conclusions The CKD Risk Score model has higher predictability and reliability and is practicable,which can be used for CKD risk evaluation for both individual and community.
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