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Evaluation of the effect of measures for mumps outbreak control by SEIR model

WU Hao-cheng,WANG Zhen,HE Fan,ZENG Bei-bei,LU Qing-bao Zhejiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou 310051,Zhejiang Province,China  
Objective To quantitatively evaluate the effect of mumps outbreak control and provide evidence for developing strategies for control the desease.Methods To compute the theoretical number of case and evaluate the effect of control measures by the SEIR model;and evaluate the effect of emergency vaccination based on different conditions.Results Without any control measures,the theoretical number of case was 694 person which was 9.77 times the reality,and it will last for 120 days compare to the real period for 77 days;in case of the presumption,if the vaccination was conducted on 0 and 7 days after the onset of the first case,the number of case were 37 and 127;the number of case were 112 and 53 when the protective rate were 85%,95% respectively;and the number of case were 150 and 78 when the immunization coverage rate were 80%,90%respectively.Conclusions The measures which were conducted on the school were greatly limited the prevalence of disease;and we can get the better effect in case of the early emergency vaccination and high immunization rate.
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