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《Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences》 2007-01
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Dynamic analysis and forecast of ecological footprints in Jilin Province

GU Kang-Kang 1, 2 LIU Jing-Shuang1(1 Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130012, China; 2 Graduate University, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)  
Ecological footprints model is a method of measuring the sustainable development. The model was applied to evaluate the present situation of sustainable development of Jilin province and its developing trend in future, which can provide suggestions for the sustainable development of Jilin province. We reviewed the past and present study of the model and the way of its calculation. Ecological footprints (EF) and ecological capacity (EC) in Jilin province from 1978 to 2002 were studied by the ecological footprints model and ecological footprints and ecological capacity of Jilin province from 2004 to 2016 was predicted by the regression model. Results showed: from 1978 to 2002, in Jilin province, the per capital EF increased from 1.090hm2 to 2.457hm2, and the increase speed per year was 3.45%; the per capital EC decreased from 1.210hm2 to 1.096hm2, and the decrease speed per year was 0.4%. There was ecological surplus in 1978 and 1980, while in the other years there ecological deficit. From 2004 to 2016, the increase speed per year of per capital EF will reach 1.99%, and the decrease speed per year of per capital EC will reach 0.5%. The extant problems of ecological footprints model and further study were also discussed.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展计划973计划(2004CB418507)资助
【CateGory Index】: X22
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