Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Scientia Agricultura Sinica》 2013-06
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

Regional Prediction and Evaluation of Wheat Phenology Based on the WheatGrow and CERES Models

L Zun-fu,LIU Xiao-jun,TANG Liang,LIU Lei-lei,CAO Wei-xing,ZHU Yan(College of Agriculture,Nanjing Agricultural University/National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture/Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture,Nanjing 210095)  
【Objective】The objectives of this study are to investigate the key techniques of wheat phenological model for regional application,and to evaluate the validity of regional application techniques through analyzing the simulated phenology results of WheatGrow and CERES-Wheat at regional scale.【Method】First,the daily meteorological data at different weather stations were interpolated using the method of Thin Plate Spline(TPS),and the gridded daily meteorological surface data was generated.Then,the historical sowing dates of wheat at different stations were interpolated using TPS method,and the multi-year average values of interpolated results were generated as regional sowing date surface data.In addition,by integrating the Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) method with the above two wheat models,the region-specific cultivar parameters were estimated with the measured phenology data from 1998 to 2003,and were taken as the typical cultivar parameters of each province.Finally,the regional daily meteorological data,sowing surface data and region-specific cultivar parameters were input into the above two models,which took grid as basic unit to simulate regional wheat phenology.Meanwhile,the simulated results were evaluated with observed data and the uncertainty coming from cultivar parameters was quantified at site and regional scales.【Result】The estimated values from the above two models agreed well with the observed values at regional scale.R2 between estimated and observed values of jointing date,heading date and maturity date were 0.85,0.87 and 0.86(WheatGrow),0.87,0.85 and 0.82(CERES),respectively.RMSE between the estimated and observed values of jointing date,heading date and maturity date were 9.6,7.2 and 6.3 d(WheatGrow),9.4,7.8 and 6.6 d(CERES),respectively.By analyzing the simulated results of the two models at regional scale,the WheatGrow model had higher prediction accuracy than CERES-Wheat,while the uncertainty came from crop parameters were also higher than CERES-Wheat model.【Conclusion】Through combining the TPS interpolation method with MCMC-based parameter estimation techniques,the mechanism-based model could be effectively extended to regional scales to accurately predict the regional wheat phenology,and quantify the uncertainty coming from the parameter estimation.These results will provide a technology support for estimating crop productivity at regional scale in the future.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(31271616);; 国家科技支撑计划(2011BAD21B03);; 江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)
【CateGory Index】: S512.1
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 3 Hits
1 Li Shuqiang;Li Minzan;College of Agricultural Engineering,Henan University of Science and Technology;Key Laboratory of Modern Precision Agriculture System Integration Research,Ministry of Education, China Agricultural University;;Generality of Winter Wheat Growth Prediction in Early Growth Periods[J];Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery;2014-02
2 CHEN Xi;DU Keming;WEI Shi;SUN Zhongfu;ZHENG Feixiang;LI Jing;GU Wanrong;College of Agriculture,Northeast Agricuture University;Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences;;Advance on Simulation Modeling of Frost and Freezy Injury in Wheat[J];Journal of Triticeae Crops;2015-02
3 Lü Zun-fu,LIU Xiao-jun,TANG Liang,LIU Lei-lei,CAO Wei-xing,ZHU Yan(College of Agriculture,Nanjing Agricultural University/National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture / Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture,Nanjing 210095);A Method for Correcting the Meteorological Data from Regional Climate Model and Its Application in Crop Simulation[J];Scientia Agricultura Sinica;2013-16
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 8 Hits
1 LIU Tie mei, CAO Wei xing, LUO Wei hong (MOA Key Laboratory of Crop Growth Regulation, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095);Calculation of Physiological Development Time and Prediction of Development Stages after Heading[J];ACTA TRITICAL CROPS;2000-03
2 Jiang Zhiwei1,2,Chen Zhongxin1,2,Zhou Qingbo1,2,Ren Jianqiang1,2 (1. Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture,Ministry of Agriculture,Beijing 100081,China; 2. Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,Beijing 100081,China);Global sensitivity analysis of CERES-Wheat model parameters[J];Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering;2011-01
3 MA Yu-Ping,WANG Shi-Li,ZHANG Li,ZHUANG Li-Wei (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China);A Preliminary Study on a Regional Growth Simulation Model of Winter Wheat in North China Based on Scaling-up Approach Ⅰ. Potential Production Level[J];Acta Agronomica Sinica;2005-06
4 JIN Zhi-Qing and SHI Chun-Lin(Institute of Agricultural Resources and Environments,Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Nanjing 210014,Jiangsu,China);An Early Warning System to Predict Waterlogging Injuries for Winter Wheat in the Yangtze-Huai Plain(WWWS)[J];Acta Agronomica Sinica;2006-10
5 Xiong Wei1)2)1)(Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081)2)(Key Laboratory for Agro-environment and Climate Change,Ministry of Agriculture PRC,Beijing 100081);The Performance of CERES-Wheat Model in Wheat Planting Areas and Its Uncertainties[J];Journal of Applied Meteorological Science;2009-01
6 JIANG Xiao-jian, LIU Xiao-jun, HUANG Fen, JIANG Hai-yan, CAO Wei-xing, ZHU Yan (Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China).;Comparison of spatial interpolation methods for daily meteorological elements[J];Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology;2010-03
7 JIANG Min1,2,JIN Zhi-qing1 (1Institute of Agricultural Resources and Environment,Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Nanjing 210014,China;2 Department of Rural Regional Development,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China);A Method to Upscale the Genetic Parameters of CERES-Rice in Regional Applications[J];Chinese Journal of Rice Science;2009-02
8 SHI Xiao-yan,TANG Liang,LIU Xiao-jun,CAO Wei-xing,ZHU Yan (College of Agronomy,Nanjing Agricultural University/Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture,Nanjing 210095);Predicting Spatial Productivity in Wheat Based on Model and GIS[J];Scientia Agricultura Sinica;2009-11
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 LI Li-shuang et al(School of Computer Science and Technology,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian,Liaoning 116024);Spatial Interpolation Method of the Meteorological Factor in Northeast China Based on GIS[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2012-09
2 FENG Qing he,ZHANG Jian ping,WANG Xiang dong,MA Hai lian (College of Agronomy, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding 071001, China);Progresses and perspectives in crop growth simulation research[J];Journal of Agricultural University of Hebei;2002-S1
3 ZENG Hongwei1,2,LI Lijuan1,ZHANG Yongxuan3,LIU Yumei1,2(1.Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;3.School of Geography,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China);Study on Spatial Interpolation of Precipitation with Large Scale Samples:A Case Study on 2009' s Precipitation of China[J];Progress in Geography;2011-07
4 XIONG Wei1,2,LIN Erda1,2,JIANG Jinhe3,LI Yan4,XU Yinlong1,2 (1.Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;2.The Key Laboratory for Agro-environment & Climate Change,Ministry of Agriculture,Beijing 100081,China;3.Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China;4.Water Resources Information Center,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100053,China);An Integrated Analysis of Impact Factors in Determining China's Future Grain Production[J];Acta Geographica Sinica;2010-04
5 SHI Ben-lin1,ZHU Xin-yu1,LI Hong-zhong1,ZHANG Yi2(1.College of Enviromnent and Planning,Shangqiu Normal University,Shangqiu 476000,Henan,China; 2.Shangqiu Weather Bureau,Shangqiu 476000,Henan,China);Impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield in Central Planins of China:Case study of Shangqiu[J];Geographical Research;2012-01
6 XIONG Wei,YANG Jie,LIN Erda,XU Yinlong(Institute of Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science,Beijing 100081,China);The Projection of Maize Yield in China under Climate Change Scenarios[J];Advances in Earth Science;2008-10
7 ZHANG Xue-yi1,2,ZHANG Li1,HUANG Feng1,LIU Jing1,MA Guo-fei1(1.Ningxia Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction, Yinchuan 750002,China;2.NanjingUniversity of Information Engineering,Nanjing 210044,China);Dynamic simulation of spring wheat leaf area index in Ningxia irrigable area[J];Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas;2011-01
8 MI Na1,ZHANG Yushu1,CAI Fu1,JI Ruipeng1,ZHANG Shujie1,YU Huibo2,YU Xiujie3(1.Institute of Atmosphere Environment,China Meteorological Administration,Shenyang 110016;2.Observations and Networking Division,Liaoning(Provincial) Meteorological Service,Shengyang 110001;3.Shenyang Regional Climate Center,Shenyang 110016,P.R.China);Modelling the impacts of future climate change on maize productivity in northeast China[J];Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment;2012-08
9 WANG Xiu-fen1,YANG Yan-zhao2,YOU Fei1(1.Institute of Agriculture Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China; 2.Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China);Climate Change and Its Impact to Maize Yield in Heilongjiang Province[J];Arid Zone Research;2012-06
10 YANG Xuan 1,TANG Xu 2,CHEN Baode 3,TAN Yan 3,TIAN Zhan 4(1.College of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;2.Shanghai Meteorological Bureau,Shanghai 200030,China;3 Shanghai Typhoon Institute,Shanghai 200030,China;4.Shanghai Climate Center,Shanghai 200030,China);Uncertainty of ensemble winter wheat yield simulation in North China based on CMIP5[J];Progress in Geography;2013-04
China Proceedings of conference Full-text Database 1 Hits
1 Yang Yu-jian Tong Xue-qin Zhu Jian-hua (S&T Information Engineering Research Center of Shandong Academy of Agricultural Science,Jinan 250100);The Region Simulation of Agricultural Model Based on Spatial Analysis Technology[A];[C];2007
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 BAO Yan~1,2, Lü Shi-hua~1, LU Deng-rong~2, HOU Rui-qing~3(1.Cold and Arid Regions Environmental Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Science,Lanzhou Gansu,730000,China;2.Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou Gansu,730000,China;3.Hebei Bureau of Meteorology,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050020,China);Application of Regional Climate Model(RegCM3) in North-west China I: Simulation of an arid extreme event[J];Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology;2006-02
2 LI Zhuofu, FU Lianshuang, WANG Xiaonan, SUN Yanli, TONG Mingyao (College of Agriculture, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China);Advance on winter wheat breeding for freezing tolerance in frigid region[J];Journal of Northeast Agricultural University;2010-08
3 Shen Hong,Sun Xueping,Lin Xiaomei(1.School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science,Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875,China;2.Key Laboratory of Regional Geography, Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China);Study on Risk Assessment of Winter Wheat Frost Damage in Huanghuai Wheat Production Zone[J];Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention;2011-03
4 WU Chao-yang 1,2,NIU Zheng 1,TANG Quan 1,2,HUANG Wen-jiang 3 1.The State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science,Institute of Remote Sensing Applications,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China 2.Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100039,China 3.National Engineering Research Center for Information Technology in Agriculture,Beijing 100097,China;Effects of N,K Fertilization on the Relationship between Photosynthetic Light Use Efficiency and Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI)[J];Spectroscopy and Spectral Analysis;2009-02
5 ZHANG Dong-feng~(1,2),GAO Xue-jie~(1),BAI Hu-zhi~(3),LI Dong-liang~(4)(1.The Laboratory of Climate Study of National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;2.Shanxi Meteorological Bureau,Taiyuan 030006,China;3.Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory,Lanzhou 730020,China;4.Cold and Arid Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China);Simulation of Climate over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau Utilizing RegC M3[J];Plateau Meteorology;2005-05
6 HE Zhen,HE Junping(College of Environment and Planning,Shangqiu Normal University,Shangqiu 476000 Henan,P.R.China);Estimation of winter wheat yield based on the NOAA-NDVI data[J];Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment;2013-05
7 JIN Yan-hua1,3,XIONG Hei-gang2,3,ZHANG Fang1,3,WANG Li-feng1,3 1.College of Resources & Environment Science,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China 2.College of Art & Science,Beijing Union University,Beijing 100083,China 3.Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology Ministry of Education,Urumqi 830046,China;Study on the Difference in Canopy Spectral Reflectance and Chlorophyll Content of Spring Wheat at Jointing Stage in Different Land[J];Spectroscopy and Spectral Analysis;2013-04
8 PAN Bei,ZHAO Geng-xing,ZHU Xi-cun,LIU Hai-teng,LIANG Shuang,TIAN Da-de National Engineering Laboratory for Efficient Utilization of Soil and Fertilizer Resources,College of Resources and Environment,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai’an 271018,China;Estimation of Chlorophyll Content in Apple Tree Canopy Based on Hyperspectral Parameters[J];Spectroscopy and Spectral Analysis;2013-08
9 GAO Liangzhi, 1JIN Zhiqing, 2ZHENG Guoqing,3FENG Liping, 1ZHANG Lizhong,1SHI Chunlin,1GE Daokuo ( 1Institute of Agricultural Modernization,Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Nanjing 210014;2Institute of Information for Agric;Wheat Cultivational Simulation-Optimization-Decision Making System(WCSODS)[J];JIANGSU JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES;2000-02
10 1JIANG Min, 2JIN Zhiqing, 2GAO Liangzhi, 2GE Daokuo, 2SHI Chunlin(1Department of Geography, Xuzhou Normal University, Xuzhou221009; 2Institute of Agricultural Modernization,Jiangsu Academy?;Gradual Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Production in China[J];JIANGSU JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES;1998-02
【Secondary References】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 2 Hits
1 Yu Lianyu;Cai Huanjie;Yao Fuqi;Zheng Zhen;Wang Jian;Li Zhijun;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid Area,Ministry of Education,Northwest A&F University;Institute of Water Saving Agriculture in Arid Regions of China,Northwest A&F University;Scientific Academy of Yangtze River;;Applicability of Vegetation Indices to Estimate Fractional Vegetation Coverage[J];Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery;2015-01
2 Wang Liai;Ma Chang;Zhou Xudong;Zi Yan;Zhu Xinkai;Guo Wenshan;Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and Physiology of Jiangsu Province,Yangzhou University;College of Information Engineering,Yangzhou University;;Estimation of Wheat Leaf SPAD Value Using RF Algorithmic Model and Remote Sensing Data[J];Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery;2015-01
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 Gu Zhihui Shi Peijun Chen Jin(Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Nature Disaster,the Ministry of Education of China;Institute of Disaster and Public Security,College of Resources Science and Technology: Beijing Normal University,100875,Beijing,China);PRECIPITATION INTERPOLATION RESEARCH OVER REGIONS WITH SPARSE METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS:A CASE STUDY IN XILIN GOLE LEAGUE[J];Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science);2006-02
2 YAN Hong (Research Institute of Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091);Modeling Spatial Distribution of Climate in China Using Thin Plate Smoothing Spline Interpolation[J];Scientia Geographica Sinica;2004-02
3 ZHU Qiu-An, ZHANG Wang-Chang, ZHAO Deng-Zhong (International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjiang, Jiangsu 210093);Topography-based Spatial Daily Precipitation Interpolation by Means of PRISM and Thiessen Polygon Analysis[J];Scientia Geographica Sinica;2005-02
4 GE Quan-sheng1,WANG Shao-wu2,FANG Xiu-qi3(1.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;2.Department of Atmospheric Science,School of Physics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;3.School of Geography,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China);An uncertainty analysis of understanding on climate change[J];Geographical Research;2010-02
5 CHANG Wen-Yuan 1,2 DAI Xin-Gang 1,2 CHEN Hong-Wu 3 1 Department of Atmospheric Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China 2 State Key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,LASG, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 3 Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang,rümqi 830000, China;A CASE STUDY OF GEOESTATISTICAL INTERPOLATION TO METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS[J];Chinese Journal of Geophysics;2004-06
6 LIU Yu,CHEN Pan-Qin,ZHANG Wen,and HU FeiState Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;A Spatial Interpolation Method for Surface Air Temperature and Its Error Analysis[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2006-01
7 ZHANG Xueqin1,PENG Lili1,2,LIN Zhaohui3(1.Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;3.International Centre for Climate and Environment Sciences,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China);Progress on the Projections of Future Climate Change with Various Emission Scenarios[J];Advances in Earth Science;2008-02
8 CUI Shenghui1,LI Fangyi1,2,HUANG Jing1,2,3,YU Yuxian1,2(1.Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health,Institute of Urban Environment,CAS,Xiamen 361021,China;2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;3.Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,CAS,Beijing 100085,China);Review of Sensitivity Research on the Context of Global Change[J];Advances in Earth Science;2009-09
9 CHEN Panqin1,CHENG Bangbo2,WANG Fang2,QU Jiansheng3(1.Bureau of Science and Technology for Resources and Environment,CAS,Beijing 100864,China;2.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;3.The Lanzhou Branch of the National Science Library/The Scientific Information Center for Resources and Environment,CAS,Lanzhou 730000,China);Discrimination on Several Key Issues of Global Climate Change[J];Advances in Earth Science;2010-01
10 Cao Hong-xin,Jin Zhi-qing,Shi Chun-lin,Ge Dao-kuo,Gao Liang-zhi(Research Institute of Agricultural Resources and Environment,Jiangsu Academy of Agri.Sci.,Nanjing 210014,China);Researches and application of crop model series in China[J];Agriculture Network Information;2006-05
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved