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《Resources Science》 2010-03
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Dynamic Econometric Analysis of the Relationships between Rural-Urban Land Conversion and Growth of Urbanization and Economic in Hubei Province

GAO Wei1,MIN Jie2,ZHANG Anlu3 (1. Shanghai Institute of Geological Survey, Shanghai 200072, China; 2.Management Department of Tianjin Polytechnic University, Tianjin 300160, China; 3.Land Management Department of Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070, China)  
Rural-urban land conversion is closely related to urbanization and economic growth, and the trends of the development show a strong correlation especially at the time of economic growth mainly depending on an increase in input. This study explores the dynamic relationships between rural-urban land conversion, urbanization and economic growth. To this end, some econometric methods such as the co-integration, Granger causality tests, IRF and variance decomposition were used to analyze relevant data of Hubei Province during the period 1980 to 2003. Results showed that there are long-term stable equilibrium relations between rural-urban land conversion, urbanization and economic growth in Hubei Province. In the long run, the restriction effect resulting from urbanization on rural-urban land conversion is obvious in Hubei Province, but under the condition of rapid growth of economy, land conversion is deemed inevitable currently. From the error correction model, rural-urban land conversion, urbanization and economic growth cause a reverse revision effect on stable equilibrium relations. In addition, there has a more significant adjustment on the short-term fluctuation. The long-term effects of urbanization and economic growth on rural-urban land conversion were found to be more significant than the short-term effects. Granger causality test showed that the rural-urban land conversion possesses have a better descriptive ability for urbanization and economic growth, and single-direction causality indicated that rural-urban land conversion plays a significant and positive role in urbanization and economic growth. From the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, the interaction effects between urbanization, economic growth and rural-urban exhibited certain differences. It was also found that urbanization contributes inversely to rural-urban land conversion and the effect is more significant. Therefore, in order to mitigate the contradiction between rural-urban land conversion and economic growth in Hubei Province, urbanization should be as a starting point. First, the role of economic growth in promoting urbanization should be given full play to improving the level of urbanization and enhancing intensive land utilization. Second, the industrial structure adjustment in Hubei Province should be accelerated, ensuring accordance of urban planning and land use planning with changing land use patterns and achieving an appropriate degree of the conversion between rural and urban land. Finally, it is necessary to control rural-urban land conversion by farmland protection policies and market mechanisms as well. The planning of capital farmland areas and the transfer of development rights can be combined to jointly control the rural-urban land conversion and achieve the land property.
【CateGory Index】: F224;F299.2;F301;F320
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