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《Resources Science》 2010-10
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Estimating the Rebound Effect of Energy Consumption of Industrial Sectors in China Based on the Perspective of Technological Advancement

GUO Juan1,2,3,LING Yu3,GUO Chonghui1 (1. Institute of Systems Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China; 2. Center for Econometric Analysis and Forecasting, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China; 3. School of Mathematics and Quantitative Economy, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China)  
Rebound effect is an important issue in energy economics having received much attention in that the rebound effect of energy consumption directly affects the effectiveness of energy policies. According to a universally accepted economic view, the rebound effect determines the pure efficiency effect. Energy consumption would continue to grow even if energy efficiency is improved under the condition of the efficiency elasticity of energy demand being higher than 1. The rebound effect shows varying definitions in the energy economics literature. Most studies are only related to theoretical issues, showing less regarding analysis and estimation of the size of the potential rebound effects. On the other hand, most of empirical studies are associated merely with the residential sector or fuel consumption for transportation purposes, lacking empirical tests of the industrial sector. By adopting a thermodynamic point of view, this paper presents a framework incorporating three input factors (i.e., capital, labor and energy) of neoclassical product functions based on a brief review of related economic literature. Data of energy, economy and capital of industrial sectors in China during the period 1978-2007, the widely used econometric methods, as well as a ridge regression model were jointly utilized to estimate the contribution of technological progress in the industrial sectors in China. The size of rebound effect based on technological progress during the period 1979-2007 was subsequently calculated. Results show that the average size of rebound effect in the study period was roughly 46.38%, showing a generally decreasing trend with certain fluctuations. This indicates that improving the technological level of energy consumption is gradually becoming a critical tool to effectively utilize and reserve energy. Technological progress plays a role in improving energy efficiency; however, the expected goal of energy saving has not realized in the industrial sectors but displays a promising energy saving trend in the long term. The policy implications are that a sole emphasis on technological progress to improve energy utilization efficiency would not necessarily result in achieving the goal of energy consumption reduction or thoroughly solving problems of energy constraints. As such, it seems to be critical to reinforcing appropriate governmental regulations in the energy field. In the meanwhile, the expansion of economic scale in industrial sectors should be appropriately controlled, following the macro-control policies such as proper energy price policy and tax policy in order to achieve the expected goal of energy saving.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金青年项目资助(编号:70901016);; 国家社科基金项目资助(编号:05BJY013);; 辽宁省创新团队项目资助(编号:2007T050)
【CateGory Index】: F224;F424;F206
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【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 5 Hits
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【Co-citations】
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1 Wang Yun-ping(Dongbei University of Finance and Economics the School of Math and Quantitative Economics 116023);Whether the Improvement of Fairness and Efficiency Exists in Economy Field since China Reformation[J];Journal of Liaoning Institute of Science and Technology;2008-02
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