Decomposition of Carbon Emissions and Low Carbon Strategies for Industrial Sector Energy Consumption in China
DONG Jun,ZHANG Xu (North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)
Based on analysis of the energy consumption of industrial sectors in China, the present paper explores factors influencing industrial sector CO2 emissions related to energy consumption. By comprehensively accounting for elements of energy related emission intensity, energy consumption structure, energy intensity and industrial economic activity levels, and using the logarithmic mean weight decomposition method, the authors built a decomposition model for industrial sector CO2 emissions related to energy consumption, and performed an empirical study for the industrial sector CO2 emissions during the period 1995-2007. Results show that the industrial energy intensity has a negative influence on carbon emissions. In the year 2001, the contribution of negative influence accounted for up to -189.50% of the total influence, but from the year 2003 the contribution started to decrease significantly and reached as less as -18.71% in 2007. The industrial economic output effect was conceptually divided into two stages, i.e., slow growth of positive impact from 1995 to 2001 and rapid growth of positive impact from 2001 to 2007. In 2007, the portion of the industrial output effect accounting for the contribution of the total effects was still 117.71%. It can be drawn that the growth of energy consumption caused by industrial value added increase is the major reason of the rapid growth of carbon emissions, and the effect has offset the contributions of the energy structure to carbon emissions reduction. This reflects the situation that the rapid growth of carbon emissions caused by China’s industrial total energy consumption seems to be difficult to change. Even though a great effort has been make in enacting legislation, implementing energy-saving strategies to promote industrial structure adjustment, and other reform and complementary measures, the achievements appear to be limited with the bottlenecks and difficulties being encountered again in practice. Low carbon strategies are therefore proposed in the view of different phases of energy production, energy use and carbon control at the end. The electric and heat industry is the most important bridge between energy and the secondary energy. With decreasing primary energy demand for industrial sectors, the secondary energy, such as electric power and heat demand can increase. It is particularly critical to emphasizing the importance of energy conservation and emissions reduction in the electric power industry and thermal industry. Additional work will be done about developing a more realistic method for carbon measurement and investigating more detailed relations of carbon emissions with respect to specific industrial sectors.
【CateGory Index】： X322;F206