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Response of Agricultural Thermal Resources to Climate Change in the Region of the Brahmaputra River and Its Two Tributaries in Tibet during Past 50 Years

ZHANG Geli1,2,OUYANG Hua1,ZHOU Caiping1,XU Xingliang1,ZHANG Xianzhou1,WU Junxi1 (1. Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)  
Crop distribution and planting structures are formed as the consequence of the adaption to climate change in a long time. Global climate warming was increasingly significant in recent decades, affecting agro-climatic resources and, in turn, the agro-ecosystem. Therefore, investigating trends and variations in regional agricultural thermal resources induced by climate change was of importance to make full use of climatic resources and guide regional agricultural development. The region of the Brahmaputra River and its two tributaries in Tibet is an important agricultural region, and the variation in agro-climatic resources has affected the growth of crops and pastures. Meteorological data, involving the average temperature, beginning day, ending day, duration, and accumulated temperature of the daily temperature above 0 and 10℃ stably, were used as indicators for agricultural thermal resources monitoring. The authors analyzed inter-annual and intra-annual variations in agricultural thermal resources. Results indicated that: 1) the climate became significantly warmer, especially in winter. In the meantime, the inter-annual change of agricultural thermal resources showed a significantly increasing trend; 2) the beginning day of the daily temperature above 0 and 10℃ stably was ahead of time, the ending day was becoming later, and the duration days became longer at major meteorological stations; 3) based on the inter-annual change of the monthly accumulated temperature, accumulated temperature above 0℃ increased significantly in spring, particularly in March. The accumulated temperature above 10℃ increased greatly from August to October. In general, increasing agricultural thermal resources occurred at the beginning and ending stage of growth, which would affect the growth of crops and pastures. The beginning day when the daily temperature declined to 11℃ stably was taken as the suitable day for sowing, which could essentially reflect the impacts of climate warming on the suitable day for sowing. Results also showed the beginning day of the daily temperature decreasing to 11℃ stably was delayed. It was indicated that, in some sense, the suitable day for sowing winter wheat should be delayed. If winter wheat was sowed at the previous suitable day, they would bloom before wintering, and their capability of resisting against cold would be significantly weakened during wintering, because of a higher temperature and an accumulated temperature before wintering. The increased agricultural thermal resources would affect the crop growth after it turns green, resulting in a decreased yield.
【Fund】: 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所2009年度自主部署创新项目(编号:200906003)
【CateGory Index】: P467
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