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An Empirical Study on the Price Transmission of AgriculturalProducts between Production and Marketing in China

XU Shiwei,LI Zhemin,DONG Xiaoxia,LI Gangqiong(1.Agricultural Information Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;2.Key Lab of Intelligent Agricultural Early Warning Technology of MOA, Beijing 100081, China;3.Key Lab of Intelligent Agricultural Early Warning Technology and System of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)  
The price transmission of China's agricultural products from the origin market to thesales market was analyzed in the present work, which would provide a basis for government toformulate macro-control policies related to agricultural product prices. The agricultural productsprice index (SCJG) and food retail price index (SPLS) were investigated. Based on annual data forthe period 1978-2009, the price transmission mechanism from the origin market SCJG to the salesmarket SPLS in China was examined using the vector error correction model (VECM), impulseresponse functions, and variance decomposition method. Results indicated that there was aco-integration relationship between the origin market price of agricultural products and the foodretail price in the long run. Positive correlation between SCJG and SPLS was observed,demonstrated by that a change of 1% in SCLG could cause a 1.080% change in LSJG. The resultsfrom the vector error correction model showed that short-term price fluctuations were essentiallyrestricted by the long-term equilibrium relationship of the price transmission of China'sagricultural products from the origin market to the sales market. The coefficient of VECM in theVEC model was 0.58, which is essentially consistent with the positive correction mechanism. Thismeans a fast response of variables adjusting to the equilibrium. Moreover, the deviation betweenprices could be automatically alleviated by that restriction, promoting a variety of prices toequilibrium. In the short term, the analysis results from the impulse response function and variancedecomposition method showed that pathways from retail food prices to agricultural productionprices were relatively smoothed, but there was a first-order lag of SCJG to SPLS on pricetransmission. Furthermore, the transmission effect of agricultural product price from the originmarket to the sales market was increasingly obvious as time went forward. The impact of the foodretail market price on agricultural product price in the origin market increased gradually but theeffect was negligible. Agricultural production costs and the dynamic monitoring and warningsystem should be continuously improved, which can guide rational agriculture production andpromote stable development of domestic agriculture.
【Fund】: “十一五”国家科技支撑计划重点项目:“农产品数量安全智能分析与预警的关键技术及平台研究”(编号:2009BADA9B01);; 农业部专项:“农业信息预警研究”的部分研究成果
【CateGory Index】: F323.7
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