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《Resources Science》 2010-11
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Calculation and Analysis of Cropland Potential Productivity in Shandong Province with Different Models

CHENG Chuanzhou 1,2 ,YANG Xiaohuan 1 ,LI Yuejiao 1,2 ,WANG Ting 1 (1.State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System,Institute of Geographic Sciencesa nd Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;2 .Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)  
With the rapid growth of population and economy,the contradiction between natural resources and population has been increasingly acute,leading to a range of serious problems such as food security and environmental degradation.Food security is particularly critical for China of 22%of the global population and only 7%of the global cropland.It is therefore critical to utilize land resources in a rational and effective manner,and to fully exploit cropland productive potential in Shandong Province,one of China's major grain production areas.This plays an important role in ensuring national food security.However,with growing population of the province,the quantity as well as quality of cropland has continued to decline.In this study,the cropland productive potential in Shandong Province was calculated based on meteorological,soil,cropland,and remote sensing data with a variety of models.Subsequently,we analyzed the results from each model,and made an attempt to investigate the limiting factors of the cropland productivity potential,such as illumination,temperature,water,and soil.Results showed that overall the two models under investigation were reliable for estimating the cropland productivity potential in Shandong Province, but the results from model 2 had higher correlation with actual yield.As for spatial distribution, higher cropland potential productivity generally occurred in southwestern areas.Lower cropland potential productivity was observed across northeastern and middle portions.It was found that the development level of the cropland productivity potential of the entire province was generally smaller than 80%.However,there were large regional differences,with exhibiting that coastal and northern areas had higher development levels,whereas southwestern and central areas showed lower ones.It is suggested that the agricultural inputs in southwestern regions and central areas be increased in the future,great efforts be made to improve agricultural management levels and agricultural technology of these areas,and the land production potential be improved greatly. Amongst all the limiting factors,water showed the highest limitation on cropland productivity potential,followed by soil and temperature across the study area;therefore it is of importance to further strengthen water resources protection and improve the efficiency of utilization.
【Fund】: 中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目之主题一:“耕地资源和耕地产粮能力监测与预警”(编号:KSCX1-YW-09-01)
【CateGory Index】: F323.211
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