Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Resource Development & Market》 2017-01
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

Research on China's Energy Demand Forecasting and Pre- warning Under the New Normal

FANG De-bin;SHI Shan-shan;YANG Jian-peng;School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University;China Hydropower Construction Group New Energy Company;  
Considering the coordination of energy- economy- environment system,a system dynamic model of energy demand forecasting was built,then this paper applied scenario simulation method to simulate the three scenarios of different economic growth,industrial structure and energy policy under the new normal to forecast China' s energy demand,energy mix,CO2 emissions and pre- warning indicators in the13 th five- year period. The results demonstrated that: Under the new normal,energy demand growth shifted from rapid to medium- to- high speed,when economic growth rate was 6. 5%,speeding up industrial restructuring,intensifying the regulation of energy,energy demand would reach 5. 078 billion tons of standard coal,non- fossil energy demand ratio would reach 16. 1% and CO2 emissions would reach 10. 3 billion tons in 2020,the energy self- sufficiency rate was 82. 7%,which would be in the warning area. The study provided the theoretical basis and decision support for China's energy planning under the new normal.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目“不对称信息电力市场激励性监管机制研究”(编号:71673210);国家自然科学基金项目“复杂不确定性多主体多目标合作博弈与协商谈判的合作机制与合作模式”(编号:71231007)
【CateGory Index】: F426.2
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 1 Hits
1 LU Qi, GU Pei-liang, QIU Shi-ming(School of Manegement, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China);The Construction and Application of Combination Forecasting Model in Chinese Energy Consumption System[J];系统工程理论与实践;2003-03
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 GAO Yan;ZHOU Chang;DUAN Yao-yong;The Chinese People's Armed Police Force Academy;College of Science,Xi'an University of Posts & Teleco;;Weighted Geometric Average Combination Forecasting Method Based on the L_p Algorithm[J];内蒙古师范大学学报(自然科学汉文版);2016-04
2 CHENG Wenrong;YAO Tianxiang;College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology;;The Energy Consumption Prediction of Nanjing Chemical Materials and Chemical Products Manufacturing[J];工业安全与环保;2016-01
3 Zheng Li;Cai Dahao;National Marine Data & Information Service;;Development Trend of China's Marine Biomedicine Industry[J];中国科技论坛;2016-01
4 He Lihua;Yang Pan;Lu Xuewen;School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum (East China);;The Optimum Assembly Prediction of Non-negative Weights of Natural Gas Consumption in China[J];甘肃科学学报;2015-05
5 Xiaoling HAO;Ruixia SUO;School of Management,Xi'an University of Science and Technology;;The Application of Combination Forecasting Model in Forecasting the Total Power of Agricultural Machinery in Heilongjiang Province[J];Asian Agricultural Research;2015-05
6 YANG Wen-qing;Shaanxi Nanliang Coal Co. ,Ltd.;;Combination forecasting model of China's coal demand and its application[J];西安科技大学学报;2014-05
7 PAN Chang-cheng;WANG Shi-bin;WANG Ru-jun;KANG Rong-xue;College of Safety and Environmental Engineering,Capital University of Economics and Business;Faculty of Land Resource,Kunming University of Science and Technology;China Academy of Safety Science and Technology;;Petroleum tank farm safety monitoring forecasting model based on information fusion and GM[J];中国安全生产科学技术;2014-07
8 HAO Xiao-ling;Management School of Xi'an University of Science and Technology;;The Application of Combination Forecasting Model in Heilongjiang Agricultural Machinery Total Power Prediction[J];安徽农业科学;2014-14
9 SONG Ya-qing;Department of Mathematics,Hefei Normal University;;Application of Combination Forecast to Energy Consumption in Anhui Province[J];合肥师范学院学报;2013-06
10 MENG Fansheng;LI Meiying;School of Economics and Management,Harbin Engineering University;;Application of combined model in energy demand prediction[J];哈尔滨工业大学学报;2013-11
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved