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《Resource Development & Market》 2017-01
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Research on China's Energy Demand Forecasting and Pre- warning Under the New Normal

FANG De-bin;SHI Shan-shan;YANG Jian-peng;School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University;China Hydropower Construction Group New Energy Company;  
Considering the coordination of energy- economy- environment system,a system dynamic model of energy demand forecasting was built,then this paper applied scenario simulation method to simulate the three scenarios of different economic growth,industrial structure and energy policy under the new normal to forecast China' s energy demand,energy mix,CO2 emissions and pre- warning indicators in the13 th five- year period. The results demonstrated that: Under the new normal,energy demand growth shifted from rapid to medium- to- high speed,when economic growth rate was 6. 5%,speeding up industrial restructuring,intensifying the regulation of energy,energy demand would reach 5. 078 billion tons of standard coal,non- fossil energy demand ratio would reach 16. 1% and CO2 emissions would reach 10. 3 billion tons in 2020,the energy self- sufficiency rate was 82. 7%,which would be in the warning area. The study provided the theoretical basis and decision support for China's energy planning under the new normal.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目“不对称信息电力市场激励性监管机制研究”(编号:71673210);国家自然科学基金项目“复杂不确定性多主体多目标合作博弈与协商谈判的合作机制与合作模式”(编号:71231007)
【CateGory Index】: F426.2
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