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《Resource Development & Market》 2017-01
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Forecast Analysis of Cultivated Land in Hebi City Based on Construction of High Standard Grain Area

TIAN Jie-meia;CHEN Jieb;Zhengzhou University School of Public Administration;Zhengzhou University School of Water Conservancy and Environment;  
Hebi City as the demonstration area of the construction of high standard grain area in Henan Province,it bore the burden of ensuring food security and realizing the modernization of agriculture. With the use of CA- Markov model in the IDRISI software,through the treatment of the dynamic changes of land use in 2003 and 2013,we could get the land use simulation forecast map in Hebi City in 2023. And the analysis of prediction could be found in the period of the"13th Five- Year Plan",the quantity of cultivated land in Hebi City were declined slightly,but it still had the advantage,and the average decrease of dynamic degree only 0. 93% of cultivated land in Hebi City. The next study could be found that the center of gravity in during 30 years were maintained in the territory of Xunxian County of Hebi City,and within the next few years,Xunxian County would become the core area. In 2023,the cultivated land would become increasingly focus on concentrated in Hebi City with the function of tapping the potential of the interior of the land and realizing the balance of cultivated land requisition and compensation,and the level of cultivated land irrigation would increase significantly. For the development of ecology and environment,the local government would pay more attention to green development. All in all,the construction of the high standard grain level would be improved. As a conclusion,the quality degradation of cultivated land would be reduced in Hebi City,the quality balance of cultivated land requisition and compensation would tend to be more balanced,and this would be conducive to sustainable development of high standard grain area.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40971128);; 科技部“十二五”农村领域国家科技计划课题项目(编号:2012BAD05B02-7)
【CateGory Index】: F323.211
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