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《Resource Development & Market》 2017-05
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Study on Fluctuation of International Cotton Spot Price and Short Term Prediction

YAN Qing-hua;LIU Wei-zhong;QIN Zi;School of Economics and Business,Xinjiang Agricultural University;  
With the deepening of China's market-oriented reform of cotton,the relationship between China's cotton market and the international cotton market was becoming more and more closely. From 2004/2005 to 2015/2016 international cotton spot price( Cotlook FE-A) monthly data on the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper theoretically analyzed the fluctuations of international cotton spot price,then applied the ARIMA model to predict the fluctuation trend of international cotton spot price in the short term,the model relative error was below 5%,the predictive value of precision was high. Model prediction results showed that in the short term the international cotton spot prices showed a slow upward trend in May 2017 which wouldl rise to 12812. 02yuan/t,an increase of up to 688. 83yuan/t than December 2016.Based on the fluctuation trend of the international cotton spot price,this paper put forward some countermeasures and suggestions to prevent the impact of international cotton price fluctuation and ensure the sustainable development of China's cotton industry.
【Fund】: 国家社科基金青年项目(编号:16cjy023);; 自治区级研究生产学研联合培养项目(编号:xjaucxy-yjs-20141020);; 新疆人文社科重点研究基地干旱区农村发展研究中心资助
【CateGory Index】: F323.7
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