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《Resource Development & Market》 2018-01
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Risk Early Warning of Foreign Direct Investment of Resource-acquired Forestry

ZHANG Ai-mei;GUO Jing-si;ZHANG Shi-yue;WU Wei-hong;ZHANG Kun;School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Chemical Technology;School of Management,China University of Mining and Technology( Beijing);  
Under the resource-acquired forestry,this paper established the index system of foreign direct investment risks warning. By integrating the information of twelve destinations of Chinese forestry foreign direct investment over the period of 2008-2015,Principal Component Analysis was adopted to divide the risk state of these countries into four different grades for every year. Based on that,BP neural network was used to warn the risks of these investing countries. The results could be drawn as follows: Countries with stable political and economic environment,or with rich forest resources and low investment cost,needed a less warning. On the contrary,countries with poor economic status and unstable political environment but in good resource condition,needed a higher warning. Besides,this text put forward countermeasures and suggestions related to risk control and prevention,which provided valuable reference to the future studies.
【Fund】: 国家林业局林业重大问题研究及政策制定项目“世界林业发展动态跟踪与政策研究”;; 中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所课题项目“中国林业对外直接投资的风险评价及控制策略研究”
【CateGory Index】: F316.2
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