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《Resource Development & Market》 2018-01
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Impacts of Five Crises on China Inbound Tourism Scale——Base on TBTL-IA Combined Model

LUO Miao-xuan;WU Hao-cun;School of Economics and Commerce,South China University of Technology;  
A TBTL-IA combined model,which was used to measure the impact of five crises since 1998 to China inbound tourism scale. The number of inbound tourists from 2016 to 2018 would be forecasted as well. The findings were as follows:(1)China inbound tourism experienced a long cycle and three short cycles with seasonal effect caused by holiday and succession of the seasons.(2)The impact of SARS incident lasted for 15 months,resulting in a loss of 13. 86 million people. Wenchuan earthquake and inbound arrivals control of Beijing Olympic Games were short-term events,which lasted for less than three months,resulting in a loss of 0. 59 million people and 1. 40 million people respectively. The impact of global economic crisis lasted for 16 months,resulting in a loss of 8. 12 million people. Adjustment period of post-financial crisis was a long-term event,which was affecting China inbound tourism since July 2012 and resulted in a loss of 26. 99 million people. It seemed that the intensity would be significantly weakened.(3)Meanwhile,the combined model performed better than normal models. The number of inbound tourists from 2016 to 2018 would be 138. 54 million,145. 34 million and 153. 77 million respectively.
【Fund】: 国家社会科学基金项目(编号:15BTJ015)
【CateGory Index】: F224;F592
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