Analysis on China′s Natural Rubber Import Demand Based on Rotterdam Model
DONG Zheng-yi;WANG Yu-bin;College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University;
China′s natural rubber imports showed a long-term growth trend.Most of the imports were sourced from Southeast Asian countries.According to 2010-2016 China′s natural rubber imports monthly data,this paper used Rotterdam model to establish a natural rubber import demand system equation,calculated and analyzed the expenditure elasticity and price elasticity,explored the regularity and influencing factors,based on analyzing the characteristics of import trends and sources.The results showed:China′s natural rubber import demand was rigid.Import prices had less impact on import quantum,but the impact of expenditure budget and seasonal factors were significant.These influencing factors had differences among different sources,the result showed different relationship of alternative or complementary within ASEAN countries and between ASEAN countries and other regions."The Belt and Road"strategy had not yet significant effect on China′s imports of natural rubber.Therefore,China and the major natural rubber production countries had great cooperation and development space.
【CateGory Index】： F323.7;F752.61