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《Plant Protection》 2014-02
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Application of time series analysis in the forecasting of rubber tree powdery mildew

Jiang Longyan;Luo Daquan;Che Haiyan;Yang Yi;Cao Xueren;Yin Yongtao;College of Environment and Plant Protection,Hainan University;Environment and Plant Protection Research Institute,CATAS;Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management on Tropical Crops,Ministry of Agriculture;Hainan Province Agricultural Technology Extension and Service Center Seed Station;  
Disease index of rubber tree powdery mildew in Hainan State Farms during 1962-2003 was predicted using 4 time series analysis methods including exponential smoothing(ES),autoregressive(AR),moving average(MA)and autoregressive and moving average(ARMA).The forecasting effects of these four methods were compared.The results showed that the occurrence trend of rubber tree powdery mildew can be preferably fitted by the 4 methods,and ARMA had the fittest predicting effect.Therefore,time series analysis can be used for rubber tree powdery mildew forecasting.
【Fund】: 中央级科研院所基本科研业务费专项(No.2013hzs1J004);; 海南大学“211工程”建设项目
【CateGory Index】: S763.7
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