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EVALUATION AND PREDICTION OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE "TWO CIRCLES" IN HUBEI PROVINCE

HU Hong-xing1,HE Wei2,SHEN Hong2,WANG Yu1(1.School of Resource and Environmental Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China;2.College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)  
Development status of every city in the "two circles" areas,namely,Wuhan urban circle(WUC) and western Hubei eco-culture tourism circle(WEC),was evaluated by calculating sustainable development index(SDI).According to average increasing rate of 9 years' ecological capacity of biological resource(ECBR) per capita,average increasing rate of population and average increasing rate of ratio between ecological footprint and ecological capacity(fcr),the development status were predicted from now to the next 44 years.The results showed that:(1)by the end of 2006,biological resource exploitation in more than half of Hubei province exceeded the ecological capacity,resulting in decrease of ECBR per capita,scarcity of the biological resources and non-sustainable development status of this area;(2) ecological footprint of biological resource(EFBR) exceeded 50% of the ECBR in WUC;(3) the SDI of Xiangfan(XF),Jingzhou(JZ) and Jingmen(JM),which had a larger population and higher EFBR,were lower than that of any other city in WEC,and the SDI of Shennongjia is the lowest in WEC;(4) WUC had a faster growth of fcr,which reflect the sustainable development status directly,a negative growth of the ECBR per capita and better population control;(5) WEC had a slower growth of fcr,a negative growth of the ECBR per capita whose increasing rate was larger than that of Hubei and WUC,and worse population control;(6) in accordance with the existing development model,the development of both WUC and WEC would be non-sustainable in near future,therefore,scientific and long-term development plan should be made according to each present development status.
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