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Application of Markov chain in precipitation prediction and analysis of Liyang City

LIN Xiaoming;HUA Chen;HU Zunle;LI Dan;YAN Hao;JI Xiaomin;Liyang Water Resources Bureau;Changzhou Branch of Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau;Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau;  
Based on the classification of the precipitation in Liyang City from 1951 to 2020 using the mean square error classification method, using Markov chain theory and fuzzy set theory, a weighted Markov chain precipitation prediction model is established and applied to Liyang City Prediction of annual precipitation and return period of high and low water. The prediction results are good, providing technical support for regional flood and drought disaster prevention, optimal allocation of water resources, and ecological protection of rivers and lakes.
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